DROUGHT and bushfire conditions are expected to worsen, with the Bureau of Meteorology making the unusual decision to update its three-month seasonal outlook only two weeks after it was released.
Farmers and their crops are already sweltering in one of the hottest starts to October ever recorded and the dismal forecast is likely to cause more despair.
Campbelltown farmer Rohan Saligari said he was “seriously considering” cutting canola for hay if rain did not fall next week. The crop and sheep farmer said conditions were “miles worse than last year” and seriously concerning to farmers.
The bureau said a “significant shift towards a drier October nationwide” had prompted the re-release of the seasonal outlook. This outlook follows an extremely dry patch – with this September the third driest on record.
“Very low rainfall has been received over the past 12 months in the southwest of Western Australia, southeast South Australia and most of Victoria,” the bureau said.
Daytime temperatures for October to December are likely to be warmer than average across the southern half of Australia, extending into central Queensland. The prediction shift is due to a change in conditions, exacerbating El Nino.
Head of climate analysis at the bureau David Jones told Fairfax Media “the Indian Ocean (had) gone from masking to reinforcing the El Nino in Australia.
This is expected to lead to an 80 per cent chance of increased night temperatures and warmer daytime temperatures in Southern Australia. The first two days of October hit 34.4 degrees and 35.8 degrees in Melbourne. Many hot days are expected to follow, with the bureau predicting temperature records to be broken.
Department of Economic Development Jobs Transport and Resources’ (DEDJTR) seasonal risk agronomist Dale Grey said the past week’s unseasonal heatwave north of the Great Dividing Range had stopped a lot of crops maturing very quickly and had caused pastured to dry off and turn brown.
The Bureau of Meteorology issued a fire weather warning for the Mallee, North Central, South West and Central forecast districts on Tuesday in response to the hot, dry and very windy conditions, ahead of an approaching cold front.
The Country Fire Authority also issued a total fire ban for these regions, which makes it the second earliest spring fire ban the organisation has issued since 1945 (on October 4, 2006, the CFA issued a total fire ban for the North West).
Murra Warra farmer and Victorian Farmers Federation vice-president David Jochinke said there was no good news for the season which would “be hard to survive”.
