Analysis: Optimism at weaner sales

Fears initially that northern interstate competition would fail to attend this year's sales were well founded.

In fact, after two days of selling, barely a truckload has gone any distance north of Bendigo.

And the few dusty vehicles spotted on the region's roads or in motel or saleyard carparks sporting interstate number plates are mostly those of weather-wearied northern cattlemen checking on the substantial number of stock they have agisted on grass across the South West region.

Another interesting factor of these western-leg sales has been the whittling back of numbers sold from those advertised.

To date, steer numbers offered are down about one-third and fears are mounting that heifer supplies could be slashed next week as breeders retain their own-breed stock to value-add on the region's abundant feed resources.

That said, local South West restockers have underpinned these southern sales with strengthening demand.

They have so far purchased 40 per cent of the steers offered at Hamilton, with major feedlots claiming 30pc and Gippsland the remaining 25pc.

A remarkable feature of this year's sales has been the weight the steer portion of the yardings has delivered to the market yards.

It's not that across the board they are being viewed as any heavier; it is the fact that so many of the calves were born onto bare ground and raised on limited feed.

Then when it rained, they grazed with the swans and ducks as many properties went under water in the late winter and into spring.

To say these cattle have had it tough would be an understatement.

That the top and middle-run drafts of these consignments have displayed no ill side-effects of these contrasting weather conditions speaks volumes for their breeding and management.

And some of that management has involved much earlier pre-sale weaning than normal - some as much as 6-8 weeks - which has enabled the young cattle to forage freely and independently of their mothers on quality soft grass as it has hardened.

And finally, all-important prices have been viewed as being satisfactory "under the circumstances".

That comment in particular is delivered in the context that breeders are begrudgingly happy with the $600-$750 a head they have been paid for the lead and middle-run drafts of steers but are not accepting of values below $500 for their lighter steers or heifers.

These cattle are being retained at home to be value-added and sold later in the year, but if the season had a similar outcome to last year in January, it may become a blood-bath this summer.

It is a lesson the beef processing and feedlot industry needs to take on board.

Despite the rosy outlook being promoted, beef producers at the bottom of the supply chain are generally most unhappy and fed-up with not sharing in these purported profits.

Another factor at this year's western sales, especially with so many cattle being retained, is that weaner selling from this area will be the quietest for many decades, meaning the flow of numbers onto the market will be better controlled and spread over a longer time-frame.

There are even talks an early autumn sale of weaners may be conducted at Hamilton to clear these retained cattle.

News of these preliminary discussions has been met gleefully by feeder buyers who are currently being overwhelmed by sales and offers of cattle in this peak selling period and in the hottest month of the year.

It is time for the industry to become better-organised so that the selling schedule is de-cluttered and buyers have the time to consume the numbers being thrust at them.