It's been six weeks since I last penned the What's in Store column, so special thanks to those who kept readers informed during my absence.
As most of these scribes referred to the fact that despite the cold winter, the season still needs to deliver a decent fall of rain to western areas before the spring can be assured.
This was evident at Bendigo, Monday, where close to half of its 10,000 head lamb yarding comprised of suckers or new season young lambs.
While there was a reasonable percentage of fresh trade quality included in the lamb penning, the number of export weight young lambs was limited and those displaying dryness of skin was present in a higher than normal proportion for this time of the year.
Respected agents at the sale all sung the same hymn; that next month would dictate the story.
The weather they said was okay at the moment – mild, cloudy and not much wind.
The moisture that has fallen has caused paddock feed to be "on the move, with the warmer days", but agents say advancing lambs will need to be managed well to get them finished on the feed available.
However, they also say there were a good number of producers who had weaned their lambs to conserve feed on the basis of the limited soil moisture.
As a consequence they suspect the peak of the Bendigo lamb supply this spring could be delayed until "late-September through to middle-November" rather than the district's traditional September-October main flush.
Nonetheless those producers with irrigation and who have read the signs, by supplementing their lambs for the early markets, were currently being rewarded.
Sucker prices presently were being calculated at about 600-630 cents a kilogram on leg at the saleyards plus skins (clean) of $10-$12 a head.
This places the majority of current sales in the $115-$140 price bracket, with a handful of heavier weights priced from $145 to a top of $166.
The common thought among Bendigo agents was that there was not the numbers expected this year compared to 12 months ago.
This is largely due to the tight grazing conditions that were experienced through northern and western Victoria during last spring, summer and autumn, which had seen stored water remain a huge problem in those areas reliant on natural collection.
This on-the-ground advice from Bendigo, to some degree, contradicts the MLA information that suggests records are tipped to tumble again this year, with the number of lambs slaughtered now forecast to match 2014.
In its third-quarter update MLA says "cascading from these higher anticipated slaughterings that record production will flow as a result of slightly higher carcase weights, and with the A$ working in Australia's favour, so too will lamb exports".
This July sheep and lamb projections update, MLA says was influenced by the drier than expected June quarter, and the average to below average three month rainfall outlook predicted by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Sheep and lamb prices averaged higher than year-ago levels over the first six months of 2015, but a typical seasonal decline is imminent over the coming months, with lamb offerings anticipated to increase.
