ANY predictions are null and void after recent prime cattle sales. What would you normally expect to see at this time of year is a slow downward trend in prices and supply increases.
Last Thursday in NSW, Dubbo agents offered 7100 cattle, which was followed by almost 6000 at Wagga Wagga last Monday, 5000 the same day at Forbes and 3000 on Tuesday at Wodonga.
Couple this with more than 3000 head at Shepparton and the tally comes close to the total kill in Victoria for one week.
Needless to say, all Victorian markets continue to climb in number.
So why are prices not falling away, and in fact being firm to dearer? Competition, competition and more competition is the answer.
One processor said: "Not long ago, when you went to a market, the instructions were this is the price you buy to, delivered home. There was not enough competition, and it was all about price.
"Now it is different. With all processors seeking to fill the rampant export orders, competition is all about securing supply, and freight costs now become an added extra."
It is because of this these northern markets continue to gather momentum, and most Victorian processors are battling with increasing northern competition to secure supply.
It is also because of this supply remains at record levels at these markets as producers try and capture the higher prices.
However, it is also worthy to note more rain is needed in many areas, as numerous and severe frosts have depleted pasture moisture and quality. Winter crops are almost fed off too.
Most, if not all Victorian markets, plus those of the South East of South Australia, are insignificant by comparison to the northern sales.
Equal to this are the recent store cattle sales, which have shown price increases, especially in some of the Gippsland sales.
It is not necessarily the best-bred cattle that reflect this either, with much of the secondary bred and plainer condition cattle selling well, as buyers try to buy to a price.
The need for quality steers and heifers can be assessed by the Wangaratta annual weaner sale last Friday, where a high-quality yarding of steers and heifers sold well without the silly high figures.
Equal to this was the stronger competition at Wagga Wagga last Monday.
There were more buyers seeking supply for northern feedlots, and coupled with the usual competition, steers took another price rise. However, heifers were a little less fortunate, being quoted cheaper due to the high supply.
One gets the impression that strong competition now, for the record numbers on offer, is seeing feedlots anticipating a shortfall in the ensuing months leading up to and including summer.
Hence the strong support from the feedlot fraternity.
At the recent East Gippsland Beef Conference, Meat & Livestock Australia director Lucinda Corrigan said: "It has been many years, but all of the stars are in line and producers can expect good times ahead."
It does appear this will be correct, when you consider the high supply, and the strong prices.
We are experiencing record export tonnages to more countries than ever.
Exports make up about 70 per cent of our total red meat production, and the results of this are evident in the market place.
The remaining 30pc stays within the country, and at present is selling to slow consumer demand.
Consider this, supply has increased to record levels, especially for this time of year, and prices are coping and also on the rise.
We will experience supply fall in the coming weeks, and the monsoon season is only two to three months away (fingers crossed).