VICTORIAN slaughter cattle are expected to leave Australian shores within four months under the pioneering cattle deal with China.
While the Chinese government is yet to sign the cattle health protocol agreement announced last week, Australian exporters are gearing-up to be the first country to send feeder and slaughter cattle to China.
Elders International general manager Cameron Hall is currently in China fielding inquiries from importers and said, post China signing, Australian exporters reaction would be swift.
"There will be some slaughter cattle that will come up reasonably quickly by air," Mr Hall said.
"(Elders) will be capable of doing sea and air freight potentially out of any state – we expect that there will be shipments of slaughter cattle before the end of year.
"I believe there are supply chains, if not ready now, close to being ready to be able to receive slaughter cattle."
He forecasts Victoria to be the first state to supply China with slaughter and feeder cattle.
"(Victoria) is more consistent than some of the other regions given the length of season in a normal year, the availability of livestock that can be grown and finished on grass," Mr Hall said.
He said Victoria was out of Australia's bluetongue virus zone which had limited ports of entry in China's bluetongue virus zone under the agreement.
Mr Hall said securing slaughter cattle was the immediate priority of Chinese importers, while shipments of feeder cattle were expected to be sent early in the new year.
"From what has been indicated, the initial shipments that will receive import permits are likely to be slaughter cattle because I don't think that the immediate intent from the Chinese-side is for feeder cattle," Mr Hall said.
He said since the announcement, Chinese importers have been investing heavily in upgrading processing plants to meet the regulations.
"They (Chinese processors) have been (upgrading plants) but they've been wary about making too much capital commitment (before the deal is signed)," he said.
"Everyone has been waiting with patient anticipation of things being finalised so the commercial participants can start to become active in the trade."
However, Australia's biggest exporter of livestock, Wellard Rural Exports believed logistics of meeting the regulations in China would see exports begin in 2016.
Under the agreement, slaughter cattle need to be processed within 14 days and feeder cattle within 90 days.
"The abattoir capacity needs to be matched with the shipping capacity," Wellard chief operating officer Scot Braithwaite said.
He said Portland was among the best positioned to be the first port for regular commercial shipments of export feeder cattle.
It is hoped the agreement will nearly double Australia's live exports by 2025 – lifting cattle exports from the current 1.3million by a further one million head.
While exporters are yet to speculate on the market price, Mr Braithwaite said the forecast lift in demand would inevitably flow to the farm gate.
"The trade will take time to build so it won't be immediate but it will help with long term confidence," he said.
"If, and I stress if, we get to those levels, it is likely three things will happen, there will be some market substitution but also there will be greater numbers of cattle bred and as a result greater numbers of cattle directed to the live export trade."
He said the company may send some trial cargoes of slaughter cattle to test the systems and processes.
"However, in the medium to long term I think Victoria is one of the states most likely to benefit because it is geared-up for feeder cattle and is in the Bluetongue Virus-frees area – we think those southern feeder cattle are likely to be the first real commercial trade established," Mr Braithwaite said.
"It might be Wellard that does that or another company, as we don't necessarily want to be first, we want to be the best."
He said Australian exporters with established trade relationships in China were not "hyping" about the news which followed a decade of negotiations
"(Exporters) are realistic about what needs to be achieved and timeframes to achieve them," Mr Braithwaite said.
"At the same time, opening up such a large market with such a large population can only be beneficial to cattle producers here in the long term.
"There is no doubt this is positive for cattle producers in to the future and if you've got an eye on the future then its worthy of consideration."
