THE NATIONAL Party should walk away from the Coalition – at least for a few years – if the government loses the forthcoming State election, according to a leading Victorian political commentator.
Swinburne University Professor of Political Science, Brian Costar, said it was in the National Party's interests to "have a little separation, to rebuild its stocks.
"The caveat is that it is not a brawl – they don't fight," he said.
Two years out from the next election, both parties could reassess the situation and reform the coalition.
"It shouldn't be anything rancorous, but just to say 'we want to promote our own brand'.
"When you are in opposition, it's a bit different, you can promote your brand a bit more independently."
While Euroa was a three-cornered contest, it may come down to Labor preferences – which would mean it was likely National Party candidate Stephanie Ryan would win," he said.
"It's not unusual, in regional Victoria, across the years for Labor preferences to decide the outcome."
"When Labor wasn't doing particularly well, prior to the 1980s, it would often cause trouble by giving its preferences to the Liberals in one seat and the Nationals in another, just to stir them up."
It was puzzling to see why the Liberals broke the coalition agreement, to put up a candidate in Euroa, he said.
"In the 1970s and 1980s the relationship was bad, but it's been better in the last couple of decades than it has ever been – the tensions are not as deep as they used to be, so it's really surprising they ran a candidate against her (Ms Ryan).
"There has always been a group in the Liberal Party who are anti-National and want to get rid of them."
But a spokesman for National Party leader Peter Ryan told Stock & Land: "The Coalition parties have a good relationship here in Victoria."
Meanwhile, Monash University senior lecturer Dr Nick Economou (pictured) said he felt Labor would take government.
"That's due to the government's poor performance in the Legislative Assembly during the last four years, and it's down to two words: Geoff Shaw."
"The bottom line is electors don't vote oppositions in, they vote governments out."
The Liberal Party had been unable to manage its affairs, having thrown over Ted Ballieu and faced a number of internal distractions.
"Voters want a State Government to manage the economy and deal with service provision, they are not interested in ideologues."
The interest in Euroa centred around the fact seats in the area had been a Liberal stronghold, with National Party success down to the coalition agreement.
"The irony of it is the Nationals have been remarkably strong and coherent, there is no reason for their constituents to be angry with them."
Coalition agreements tended "to come and go" in Victoria, and Dr Economou said he did not think breaching it would have a long-term effect.
