AS the conservative vote slumped across the state, Louise Staley's win in the Ripon seat looks like being the Liberals' the only gain against Labor.
The Liberal candidate for Ripon, Louise Staley, has emerged as one of the few bright spots for the Coalition in an election where the conservative vote slumped across Victoria.
The spotlight has intensified on the rural seat north-west of Ballarat because it is likely to be the only seat gained by the Liberals from Labor. On the latest counting Ms Staley was 865 votes ahead of her Labor rival, Daniel McGlone. Labor has held the seat for the past 15 years.
But in other parts of regional Victoria the news has been grim for the Coalition partners, with the Nationals vote falling in key seats and the Liberal vote going backwards in the regional cities.
The Nationals are facing defeat in Shepparton, a devastating blow, while in Morwell the vote for Nationals MP Russell Northe plummeted, almost certainly in response to the Napthine government's handling of the Hazelwood mine fire.
Mr Northe retained the seat in 2010 with a massive 16.3 per cent majority, but on the latest counting for this election he has just a 1.7 per cent lead in 2PP terms.
If Nationals candidate Greg Barr does not stage an unexpected recovery in Shepparton, the Nationals are likely to end up with eight members in the lower house. They had already lost former MP Paul Weller from their lower house team, after his seat of Rodney was abolished in an electoral redivision.
Among the grim news for the Nationals there were two positive results, with the election to parliament of two impressive female candidates, Emma Kealy in Lowan and Stephanie Ryan in Euroa. Ms Ryan said: "I'm very humbled by the outcome and the fact that voters across Euroa have placed their trust in me."
At a lunch for Liberal supporters on Sunday at the Avoca sports ground Ms Staley did not claim the seat of Ripon, but was hopeful of victory.
"Three weeks ago I said that in three weeks' time that we would turn the Goldfields region blue –and I believe we have," she said.
She told the crowd that she was well placed in the count and extended thanks for the hard work of her supporters. "We have become the shining light for the party today," she said.
But Labor's Mr McGlone said the result was not yet clear in Ripon, with the situation still "very, very tight". He said there were "significant pre-poll and postal" votes to be tallied.
Mr McGlone said the electorate did not vote uniformly, and there were different allegiances in different towns.
"We did very well in Maryborough, we did fairly poorly in St Arnaud. It's such a large electorate," he said.
Mr McGlone, who has worked as a lawyer in north-west Victoria for 15 years, said it would be disappointing if he did not secure the seat, because it would then be represented by somebody who was not a member of the government.
On the latest counting figures Ms Staley had recorded 9735 primary votes, compared to 10,342 for Mr McGlone. The Nationals' candidate, Scott Turner, had 5619 primary votes. With preferences distributed for 29,529 votes, Ms Staley was in front with 51.5 per cent of the two party preferred vote.
Mr Turner, a former Richmond AFL footballer, said he was disappointed he didn't poll a greater number of votes, but described his run for parliament as "a great journey".
"It's been challenging, rewarding and a great experience. It's been a big learning curve," he said.
In urban Ballarat, Labor candidates had resounding victories. In Wendouree, Labor's Sharon Knight recorded a swing of about seven per cent on a two party preferred basis.
Ms Knight said she felt "proud and privileged" to be able to represent Wendouree for the next four years.
Asked to comment on the surge in Labor's vote in Wendouree, she said: "I think it was mainly about the fact that I was listening to people, and they were talking to me about education mainly. When Daniel did his launch it was all about education, and I think that's absolutely the way it should've been, because education is just so crucial."
Ms Knight said education and concerns about jobs were large factors in determining the outcome in Wendouree.
Labor's successful candidate in Buninyong, Geoff Howard, overcame twin challenges as he defeated both a Liberal candidate and a Nationals candidate.